Cheap Convexity

Rates, fx, commodities

Monday, May 18, 2020

The Global Savings Glut, a Modern Policy Failure

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Back in February I put out a piece called the " Imperial Circle part 2, the feedback loop between rising US asset prices and slowing gl...
8 comments:
Thursday, May 7, 2020

Macro in a State of Paradox

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Sections: - Paradoxical world of global macro, short reflation and short spoos is not the same trade. - The European barbell, politics i...
1 comment:
Monday, April 20, 2020

Global Macro Thoughts

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A few thoughts on the current global macro environment: - Europe needs to step up. A barbell strategy could be the best way to play it. ...
1 comment:
Thursday, March 19, 2020

Fed Swap Lines, USD Shortage and a Policy Transmission Problem

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Today the Fed made an excellent decision in expanding the list of CBs eligible to USD swap lines.  The point of this note is to try and clea...
3 comments:
Wednesday, March 4, 2020

The Gravitational Pull of the Lower Bound

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The idea of this is not to say the world is ending, or that this is an economic forecast in any way. The point of this note is to offer a di...
Thursday, February 13, 2020

Imperial Circle Part 2: The Long US Asset/Short Global Growth Feedback Loop

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This post will not be based on any specific trade ideas but rather on what appears to be one of the more dominant macro themes out there and...
5 comments:
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