Tuesday, December 15, 2020

What if covid was the top in the risk premium bull market?

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Sections: 1) Q2/Q3 2021 is setting up to be a clash between the Fed's new reaction function and upside risks. The Fed will likely lean i...
2 comments:
Friday, October 30, 2020

Can Policy Restart this Circular Flow into Rising Covid Risks?

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Sections - Path vs. destination, the policy "distributional transfer." - China is in the process of a durable "suck in" ...
8 comments:
Wednesday, September 9, 2020

Stabilization to Accommodation, Brainard's Policy Transition

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Sections - Jackson Hole, the Fed’s current duality. - Can we have a “beautiful” recovery or is fiscal in trouble? - What i...
1 comment:
Wednesday, July 22, 2020

Macro in a World of Policy Omnipotence

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The one trade now in global macro is, can policymakers continue to get whatever outcomes they want. Sections: - For the market, skew has ...
2 comments:
Monday, June 22, 2020

What if the Dollar is a "Solved" Problem

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Sections:  - Markets in two times frames - Is the dollar a solved problem - Relative FX vols, change in regime - A lot is happening...
1 comment:
Tuesday, June 9, 2020

Can Global Fiscal Make the Great Transition

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Overall: The market seems to be breaking down between two time horizons, and I think we are approaching an inflection point in terms of know...
1 comment:
Monday, May 18, 2020

The Global Savings Glut, a Modern Policy Failure

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Back in February I put out a piece called the " Imperial Circle part 2, the feedback loop between rising US asset prices and slowing gl...
8 comments: